Dynasty Rankings: Why Clay is Undervaluing the Old Guard
Mike Clay dropped his updated dynasty fantasy football rankings, the top 240 players, and there’s plenty to chew on. Fresh off a 1,450-yard, 12-touchdown season, Christian McCaffrey still sits atop the running back heap at RB1, which feels right. He's been an absolute engine for the 49ers. But digging a bit deeper, some of Clay's assessments, especially at receiver, raise an eyebrow or two.
Key Analysis
Real talk: Clay has Ja'Marr Chase as his WR1. No argument there, the Bengals star had 1,216 yards and seven scores in just 13 games last year. He's an absolute monster. But then you see his placement of Tyreek Hill, way down at WR9. Hill just put up 1,710 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns in 2023 for the Dolphins, leading the league in receiving for much of the season. He’s 30, sure, but he hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. That’s a seven-spot difference from Chase, who is still a few years younger. Are we really predicting a massive drop-off for Hill in the next two years that justifies that kind of gap? I don't think so.
**Receiver Ageism is a Problem**
Breaking It Down
This isn't just about Hill. Clay's rankings seem to penalize receivers once they hit that dreaded 30-year-old mark a little too harshly. Cooper Kupp, for instance, is WR27. Kupp, at 30, still managed 812 yards and five touchdowns in just 12 games last year after missing the start of the season. His 2021 season, where he caught 145 passes for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns, isn't that far in the rearview mirror. He's got a proven connection with Matthew Stafford, who's also getting up there in age but remains productive. The Rams' offense still runs through him when healthy.
Then there's Davante Adams. Clay has him at WR21. Adams, now 31, caught 103 balls for 1,144 yards and eight touchdowns in a chaotic Raiders offense in 2023. He did that with three different starting quarterbacks: Jimmy Garoppolo, Aidan O’Connell, and Brian Hoyer. That’s elite production under terrible circumstances. To put him behind guys like Zay Flowers (WR18) or George Pickens (WR19) feels like a projection based purely on age, not on current skill or recent output. Flowers had 858 yards and 5 TDs in his rookie season, good, but not Adams-level yet. Pickens had 1,140 yards and 5 TDs last year, also good, but again, Adams was doing more in a worse situation.
What This Means
**The Quarterback Conundrum**
At quarterback, Clay has Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts as his QB1 and QB2, respectively. Hard to argue with that. Mahomes is still the best player in the league, and Hurts has a huge rushing upside that translates directly to fantasy points. But when you look further down, there's a subtle push towards youth that might overlook some proven veterans. Clay has Anthony Richardson at QB13. Richardson, who only played in four games last season due to injury, completed just 59.5% of his passes for 577 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. He added 136 rushing yards and four scores. The upside is undeniable, but QB13 feels a little aggressive for someone with such a small sample size and significant injury history already.
Looking Ahead
Compare that to Kirk Cousins, who Clay has at QB20. Cousins, before his Achilles injury in Week 8, was on pace for another 4,000-yard season with the Vikings. He had thrown for 2,331 yards and 18 touchdowns in eight games. Now in Atlanta, with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson around him, he's got a wealth of talent. Cousins, at 35, might not be a 10-year dynasty asset, but he's likely a better bet for the next 2-3 years than Richardson is for consistent QB1 numbers, given the health and experience gap. It feels like the allure of potential is overshadowing established production.
My hot take? Tyreek Hill will finish as a top-5 fantasy wide receiver in 2024, outperforming at least three receivers currently ranked ahead of him by Clay.